Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketlerinin Döviz Kuru İlişkisi ve Türkiye için Tobin Vergisi Tartışması

Working Paper
İbrahim Organ, Erdal Berk
EconWorld Working Papers Series No: 2016005

Özet

Çalışmada spekülatif amaçlı sermaye hareketlerini kısıtlamaya yönelik olarak ortaya atılan Tobin vergisinin etkinliği ve Türkiye’de uygulanabilirliği araştırılmıştır. Araştırmanın temelini, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin makroekonomik dengeleri üzerinde büyük etkilere sahip olan kısa vadeli sermaye hareketlerinin ulaştığı büyüklük oluşturmakta ve çalışmada bu sermaye hareketleriyle ülkelerin makroekonomik istikrar ve büyümenin temel politika araçlarından biri olan döviz kurlarında oluşan ciddi istikrarsızlıklar esas alınmaktadır. Türkiye örneği üzerinde kısa vadeli sermeye hareketleri ile döviz kuru arasındaki ilişki ampirik olarak 2005:M1-2014:M12 dönemi için incelenmiştir. VAR analizi kullanılarak yapılan çalışmada bu ilişkinin etki-tepki fonksiyonları analiz edilerek, Tobin vergisinin etkinliği tartışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri, Döviz Kuru, Tobin Vergisi, VAR Analizi

 

Abstract

Tobin’s Tax is used to stop speculative capital inflows. In this study Effectiveness of Tobin Tax and suitability for Turkey are investigating. The study is based on the size of short term capital movements which have great impact on macroeconomic balance of developing countries. In this study, serious instabilities in exchange rates that one of the fundamental political instruments of macroeconomic stabilization and growth are grounded on. This study explains the relationship between study short-term capital inflows and exchange rate during 2005:M1-2014M12 period for Turkey. Effectiveness of Tobin Tax is discussing with impulse-response functions via VAR Analysis.

Keywords: Short-term Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate, Tobin Tax, Structural Break Unit Root, VAR

OECD’ye Üye Ülkeler Açısından Kişisel Gelir Vergisi Mükellef Sayılarının ve Seçmen Sayılarının Değerlendirmesi

Working Paper
İbrahim Organ, Baki Yegen
EconWorld Working Papers Series No: 2016004

Özet

Günümüzde kamu gelir kaynakları içerisinde en büyük paya sahip olan kalem vergidir. Vergi ilişkilerinde bir tarafta mükellef diğer tarafta alacaklı konumunda bulanan devlet bulunmaktadır. Devleti yönetme yetkisi ise seçmenler tarafından verilen oylar ile belirlenmektedir. Öyleyse vergi ilişkilerinde gerek mükellef sayıları gerekse de seçmen sayıları ayırt edici göstergeler olarak ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışmada kişisel gelir vergisi özelinde vergi ve siyaset ilişkilerinde taraflara ve ortak taraf olan “mükellef-seçmen” tarafına değinilmiş, akabinde ülkemizin de dâhil olduğu OECD’ye üye ülkelerdeki kişisel gelir mükellefi sayılarına, seçmen sayılarına ve karşılaştırmalı göstergelere ait veriler yorumlanmış ve ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyleri üzerinde kişisel gelir vergisi mükellef sayıları ve seçmen sayılarının olumlu etkileri olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

 

Anahtar Kelimeler: Mükellef Sayıları, Seçmen Sayıları, OECD Ülkeleri

Jel Kodları: H24, H71, D72

 

Abstract

Today tax is item which has the largest share in public revenue sources. In tax relations there is tax payer in a side, on the other side there is state that position of the creditor. The managing authority of the state is determined by the votes which given by the voters. So in tax relations both the numbers of taxpayer and  the numbers of voters come to the fore as distinctive indicators. Starting from this point in work were mentioned sides of tax and politics relations in personal income tax and has mentioned common side which “taxpayer-voter”. Then were interpreted datas which are belonging to the number of personal income taxpayer, number of voters and comparative indicators in OECD members countries that includes our country and was reached the conclusion that numbers of personal income tax payer and numbers of voter has positive effects on development level of the countries.

Keywords: Numbers of Tax Payer, Numbers of Voter, OECD Countries

Jel Codes: H24, H71, D72

The Nexus of Economic Growth, Military Expenditures, and Income Inequality

Working Paper
Ünal Töngür, Adem Yavuz Elveren
EconWorld Working Papers Series No: 2016003

 

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of military expenditures on economic growth by utilizing dynamic panel data analysis for 82 countries for the period of 1988-2008. Considering the possible effect of inequality on the military expenditures-economic growth nexus, this paper incorporates inequality along with its interaction with human capital into an augmented Solow growth model. The general finding is that military expenditures have a negative impact on economic growth, valid for several model specifications and sensitivity analyses. The negative impact holds when heterogeneity stemming from different country groups (e.g. development level, arms trade, fuel dependency) is considered. Also, the findings show that negative impact of military expenditure on growth for arms exporter and/or arms importer countries is weaker than those for other countries. Regarding income inequality and human capital, the findings suggest that human capital has a positive effect on growth, as expected. Income inequality on the other hand, has negative direct effect on economic growth. Considering these two variables together, the findings show that income inequality deteriorates growth for lower levels of human capital, whereas the impact of inequality on growth turns out to be positive for higher levels of human capital.

Keywords: Military expenditure, growth, income inequality, human capital, Solow growth model.

Jel Codes: C22, H56, O11

Eliminating the Effects of the Companies Insolvency Risk – A Model Approach

Working Paper
Małgorzata Porada- Rochon, Justyna Franc-Dąbrowska, Radoslaw Suwała
EconWorld Working Papers Series No: 2016002

 

Abstract

Managers around the world identify risk of liquidity problems as the primary barrier of their decisions. In the global economy, in the turbulent environment, the effects of companies insolvency risk lead to many operational and strategic problems also because of contagion effect. Therefore, it is important to study the phenomenon of insolvency, determinants that shape it as well as seek opportunities to reduce the risk of this problem. It is necessary to find an answer how to eliminate the negative effects of companies insolvency risk using a model approach? The aim of the study was to identify the determinants that affect the risk of insolvency of companies in Poland as well as propose a model of the effects of companies insolvency. We propose models based on the profiles of risk factors and the actions as well as instruments to successfully manage the risks of default. We used Principal Components Analysis. It can therefore be concluded that the issue of appropriate debt management, as well as the need for synchronization of receipts and expenditure, which should secure the current payments in a short run is crucial in identifying and reducing the risk of insolvency, in a short term  (in relation to all groups of companies). However, in the longer term, consideration should be given to the different factors that can allow the identification of the risk of insolvency, which may further allow the entrepreneurs to make quick response, or spread out over time the operations (e.g. restructuring) and thus allow to avoid the insolvency.

Keywords: Insolvency, Risk, Company

Jel Codes: G, G3, G32

Finansal Sıkıntı Sürecinde Şirketlerin Etkinlik Düzeylerinin Belirlenmesi

Working Paper
Ender Coşkun, Abdulvahap Özcan
EconWorld Working Papers Series No: 2016001

Özet

Finansal sıkıntı yaşanması veya finansal sıkıntıya düşme olasılığı; hem şirketin, hem de şirketle ilgili çıkar gruplarının çeşitli maliyetlerle karşılaşma olasılığını artırmaktadır. Finansal sıkıntı sürecinin ortaya çıkarabileceği maliyetler ve bu maliyetlerin büyüklüğü, finans literatüründe tartışılan konulardan biridir. Finansal sıkıntı maliyetleri ve yeniden yapılandırma sürecinin işletmeler ve işletmelerle ilgili çıkar grupları üzerine etkisini inceleyen çalışmalar gün geçtikçe artmaktadır. Bu çalışmada da şirketlerin finansal sıkıntı sürecinde ve yeniden yapılandırma sonrası şirket performansındaki değişimin incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla Operational Competitional Rating Analysis (OCRA) yöntemi kullanılarak şirketlerin etkinlikleri tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre finansal sıkıntı sürecinde firmanın etkinliği azalmaktadır. Ancak finansal sıkıntıdan kurtulmayı başaran şirketlerde etkinlik düzelmektedir. Finansal sıkıntıdan kurtulamayan şirketlerde ise etkinlik iyice düşmekte ve sonuçta bu şirketler iflas etmektedirAnahtar Kelimeler: JEL Kodları :  

Anahtar Kelimeler: Finansal Sıkıntı, Yeniden Yapılandırma, Etkinlik, OCRA Yöntemi

Jel Kodları: D22, M42, D53

 

Abstract

Financial distress or the possibility of getting into it may very well damage the relation between the corporates and a group that may consists of suppliers, customers, creditors, and as well as other parties involved. The knowledge of the extent that financial distress costs  are controversial in finance literature.   As a result more research is being conducted to determine the effect of financial distress costs and restructuring of the corporates on firms and the stake holders affiliated with the firms. In this study we examined the changes the company’s performance in the financial distress and after the restructuring process of the company. For this purpose Competitional Rating Operational Analysis (OCRA) was used to determine the efficiency level of the companies. According to the results the effectiveness of the company obtained in the process of financial distress is reduced. However, improving efficiency in companies that have managed to get out of financial distress. Get rid of your financial disstress in the event of the company who are unable to thoroughly falling and as a result, well these companies are bankruptcy.

Keywords: Financial Disstress, Financial Restructuring, Efficiency, OCRA Method

Jel Codes: D22, M42, D53

New Lessons from an Old Strategy: Import Substitution, Productivity and Competitiveness

Working Paper
Yilmaz Kılıçaslan, Ilhom Temurov
EconWorld Working Papers Series No: 2015002

 

Abstract

This paper examines the relation between import substitution, labour productivity and industrial competitiveness. More specifically this paper tests if the import substitution enhances both labour productivity and competitiveness in Korean and Turkish manufacturing industries. The data used in the analysis are obtained from UNIDO Industrial Demand Supply (2013) and UNIDO Industrial Statistics (2013) databases and cover the period of 1981-2001. Our results show that Turkish economy has really left import substitution after 1980. However, we found significant share of import substitution in total production in professional and scientific equipment, transportation equipment, electrical machinery, miscellaneous petroleum products, industrial chemicals industries and petroleum refineries in Korea especially in the 1990s. The results based on unbalanced dynamic panel data estimations showed that import substitution did not enhance labour productivity in manufacturing industry of both Korea and Turkey. However, we found that import substitution affects industrial competitiveness positively in both Korea and Turkey. Apart from the positive impact of import substitution on competitive-ness, we also found in this study that while Korean manufacturing industry competitiveness is closely associated with labour productivity, competitiveness of Turkish manufacturing industry depends on the factors such as exchange rates, wage differentials rather than labour productivity.

Keywords: productivity, competitiveness, import substitution, manufacturing, Turkey, Korea.

Jel Codes: L60, O12, O25, O47

Sanayi Ülkelerindeki Küresel Döviz Kuru Savaşlarının Gelişme Yolundaki Ülkelere Etkisi

Working Paper
Ece D. Erol, İbrahim Erol
EconWorld Working Papers Series No: 2015001

Özet

Küresel döviz kuru savaşlarının perde arkasında sanayi ülkelerinin uyguladıkları aşırı genişleyici para politikaları yatmaktadır. Genişleyici para politikası döviz kurlarının değerini düşürmekte ve rekabet halinde olan ekonomilerde fiyatlar açısından küresel rekabet gücünün iyileşmesine neden olmaktadır.

Bu çalışmanın amacı sanayi ülkelerinde uygulanan para ve döviz kuru politikalarını incelemek, döviz kuru savaşlarının olası ihtimalini tartışmak ve bu politikaların gelişme yolundaki ülke ekonomilerine yansımalarını incelemektir.

En büyük tehlike sanayi ülkelerinin uygulamakta oldukları para ve döviz kuru politikalarının “beggar-thy-neighbour-politics” komşunun sırtından geçinme politikası sayesinde kendi aralarında bir döviz kuru savaşlarının olabileceği kanısıdır. Ayrıca gelişme yolundaki ülkelere olan küresel sermaye akımları döviz kurlarında sık sık değişmelere neden olmakta ve bu ülkelerin ekonomilerine zarar vermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Döviz kuru politikası, Merkez Bankaları, Para Arzı ve Kredi Politikası

Jel Kodları: E51, E58, F31

 

Abstract

At the heart of the global currency wars lies excessively expansionary monetary policy adopted by the industrialized countries. Expansionary monetary policy reduces the value of the exchange rate and improves global competitiveness of the economy with a view to price competition.

This study aims to analyze the monetary and exchange rate policies adopted in industrial countries and to discuss the possibility of currency wars, as well as to investigate the effects of these policies on emerging economies.

The biggest threat is the view that the “beggar-thy-neighbor” kind of exploitative monetary and exchange rate policies of industrialized countries could give rise to a currency war. In addition, global capital flows to the emerging economies cause frequent fluctuations in exchange rate, which hurts the economies of these countries.

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Central Banking, Supply of Money and Credit Policy

Jel Codes: E51, E58, F31

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